When Will an Underdog Be In the Super Bowl?
An aside for the article: if you wish to help out the victims of the Kansas City Super Bowl Parade shooting, you may donate to the many GoFundMe fundraisers created for the community.
Kansas City won their second straight Super Bowl, even after having an “off” season. Setting aside my Vikings-fan envy towards a team that considers a six-loss season “off” (only third seed in the AFC, guys!), I recognize that powerhouse teams like the Kansas City Chiefs add a necessary element of excitement to the NFL.
But leading up to the Super Bowl, there were multiple “I’m sick of the damn Chiefs” remarks coming from people around me. Why them? Again?
Looking at the Chiefs’ win — and the prospect of a potential “three-peat” — I got to wondering if we would soon have an underdog team at the Big Show anytime soon. If so, who could that team be, and why?
But First — Yes, We Need Dynasties
It’s a balance. If there are too many great teams, poorly-performing franchises have a more daunting mountain to climb. After a while, why bother trying? Likewise, if there are too many bad teams, well…is it the NFL anymore? Look at the current NFC South and tell me. Not even that, think about the Carolina Panthers’ 50-cent tickets. It’s not professional football if your team is worth less than tooth fairy money.
Even just thinking about the staggering amount of starting quarterback injuries in the 2023–24 season, the quality of the NFL product was put into question. A matchup between backup quarterback A and backup quarterback B doesn’t have much bite to it. Having multiple teams a week that don’t know who to start at QB is hard to market. Even just seeing a growing Injury Report hurts, if purely on an empathetic level — I don’t want lives to get harder. I don’t want people to be hurt for weeks and months on end.
We need good football. We need players who know how to stay healthy and play the game, reliably.
Yes, dynasties are annoying to fans that don’t have one. Look no further than the likes of the Buffalo Bills who, thanks to their absolute tank of a quarterback, are inches away year after year from their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994. Poor Bills fans. Well, better to have four straight divisional playoff appearances than four straight Super Bowl losses.
Yet why have teams with back-to-back success? Imagine an NFL without them. Less annoying? Perhaps. But…we need teams to serve as real challengers. We need kings to knock off thrones. We need players to bleed into our history, to establish new standards of play.
Look at it from both sides: if you beat the Kansas City Chiefs, you have a win to remember for weeks. If you are the Kansas City Chiefs, you have years of unabashed city pride to remember. But beyond that: powerhouse teams just provide great football.
The Kansas City villain era should be embraced by all. For KC, they get the excitement of being at the popular kid table of the NFL. For everyone else, they have someone to fight against.
Who Are The Underdogs of the NFL?
After 58 Super Bowls, twelve teams are still yet to hoist the Lombardi trophy.
Four of those twelve haven’t even stepped on a Super Bowl field. This year, three of those four — the Detroit Lions, the Cleveland Browns, and the Houston Texans — were painfully close to breaking that spell.
The Lions are an especially bittersweet story. They clinched their first ever NFC North championship title. Then in a stadium that broke decibel records, they won their first playoff game since 1991. They beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following week and were off to San Francisco to make history for their city.
And in true Lions fashion, they weren’t even a game away from doing so. They were half a game away, ending the 2nd quarter with a healthy 24–7 lead.
What makes an underdog in the NFL? Does it depend on the season? Looking again at the Buffalo Bills, they climbed their way from barely even being playoff contenders after a crushing loss to the Broncos to becoming the 2nd seed in the AFC after winning six of their last seven regular season games. Plus, they’re one of the twelve teams to never get a Lombardi. They could be called an underdog story.
But what about a team that has made it to a Super Bowl — one that isn’t among the Unfortunate 12? Let’s look at the Green Bay Packers, for example. After a disappointing start and a series of mid-season losses, they scraped their way into the playoffs and dominated the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. Facing the 49ers, they lost only by a field goal. Again — an underdog story. Yet only for this season. Love seems to be the Packers’ guy. They’ll be good for a while and perhaps form their own dynasty. Underdogs? I’d say no.
Who Aren’t The Underdogs?
Easy. Anyone who won a Super Bowl at least a year outside of my lifetime (I was born in February 1996).
First off, why a Super Bowl since ‘95? Let’s look at all the Super Bowl winners. In the past 28 years, 14 teams have won a Super Bowl (and I’m counting Saint Louis and the LA Rams as one team).
If 12 teams never won the Super Bowl, 20 teams have. The remaining six teams that won before I was born are San Francisco (last ‘95), Washington (last ‘92), Chicago (last ‘86), Oakland (last ‘81), Miami (last ‘74), and New York (Jets, ‘69).
Case in point: if your poor city hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 1995, you live in San Francisco, and you’re doing fine. If you won before that, it’s been long enough. America is allowed to root for you. In the underdog category you go.
But if you whine about a 28-year Super Bowl drought? Oh, stop. No one feels bad for you.
But what about the Cowboys? you may ask. They haven’t even tasted a Super Bowl in decades! They haven’t seen a divisional game this millennium!
The Cowboys won five Super Bowls, three of which having been in the past thirty years. Sorry, but their trophy case is full enough. Next.
Possible Underdogs in Future Super Bowls
Given the criteria discussed, we have a few possible categorical underdogs that can potentially see a Super Bowl soon:
Cincinnati Bengals: Assuming that Joe Burrow can stay healthy, the Bengals can make it to another Super Bowl. Of the underdogs listed, they’re the most likely to do so considering that their last Super Bowl appearance was in 2022. The Bengals had a disappointing year — they ended with a 9–8 record in a highly competitive AFC season — however, they do have the tools.
With that said, it’s worth considering where Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgens could end up.
Miami Dolphins: Their last Super Bowl appearance was in 1985. Most notably, their last playoff win was in 2000. Maybe one wouldn’t consider the Dolphins an “underdog” because of their rising popularity and consistent success. However, seeing them in the Super Bowl may get football fans excited due to their recent postseason history alone.
The Dolphins have a lot of promise. They’re on a four-season winning record streak with no sign of slowing down, especially with the young and very promising quarterback-head coach team of Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel.
Unfortunately, injuries will play a huge part in their destiny. It contributed to their monumental loss to the Ravens and their disappointing performance in the postseason against the Chiefs. Mentality will also play a part. Will the Dolphins deliver in the postseason one day, or will they continue to choke?
Buffalo Bills: On paper, the Bills absolutely should make a Super Bowl appearance soon. However, no other team that comes to mind seems to be as dependent on mentality than the Bills.
The Bills are a fickle team. They’re the same team that, in 2023, lost to the Jets, Patriots, and post-Burrow Bengals and yet won comfortably against the Dolphins (twice!) and Cowboys. Perhaps things will change if they move on from head coach Sean McDermott — a sentiment that I know I share with others. After all, the Bills saw a dramatic shift with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Pressure also plays a factor. Are the Bills putting too much on Josh Allen’s shoulders? Is the weight of having no Super Bowl win too much of a hurdle? And when playing against the Chiefs, who have been giving them postseason struggles — will Buffalo overcome the challenge?
Whatever the case, consistency is key. The Bills need to become more reliable with their wins and not just rely on grit.
Houston Texans: The Texans are one of the twelve teams to not ever win a Super Bowl. However, given that they didn’t form until 1999 (making the franchise younger than many NFL players), this statistic might not be as notable.
Still, after an awful 3–13–1 season in 2022–23, the Texans managed to strike what many NFL franchises can only dream about: an elite quarterback and great head coach out of the gate. Rookie-of-the-Year C.J. Stroud managed to get his team through a respectable playoff run. Meanwhile, DeMeco Ryans just finished his first season as head coach and already generated Coach of the Year conversations.
The Texans are on a good streak, but they absolutely need to get better utilizing what they have.
Detroit Lions: Head coach Dan Campbell notably remarked in the NFC Championship postgame press conference that “this may have been [the Lions’] only shot.” Especially given the Lions’ famously disappointing history, it’s understandable to believe this. After all, plenty of teams in the NFL who have made it to high-level playoff games have spent years trying to reach their same level of success.
The Lions may be in that camp. They’ve had an exceptional postseason run that they may not be able to replicate. With that said, I wouldn’t rule them out yet. Dan Campbell only finished his third season as the Lions’ head coach. Plus, the team is full of promising rookies with the likes of Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jacksonville Jaguars never won a Super Bowl and have a great quarterback. That alone is a recipe for a promising trip to the Super Bowl for an underdog team.
Yes, they failed to make the postseason this year. Then again, we’re not talking about this year — we’re talking about the future.
With that said, the reasonings for them making it to the Super Bowl soon are weak.
Minnesota Vikings: I know, I know. Really? The Vikings? Listen — I can’t write an article like this without mentioning my Minnesota Vikings. It’s just what a good football fan does. But realistically, I think that a Vikings Super Bowl appearance is unlikely unless the team makes some serious changes.
Like the Bills, consistency is key. Not only that, but consistency with comfortable wins. During the Vikings’ 13–4 season in 2022–23, it was still chalked up to luck due to many of these wins happening by a score. In order to make a true Super Bowl appearance, the Vikings need to get tougher. They need to become a threat. Facing against a present-day NFL, the Vikings need to prove that they can truly win games and not scrape wins together.
The Vikings have good weapons: wide receiver Justin Jefferson, safety Cam Bynum, tight end T.J. Hockenson, fullback C.J. Ham, etc. Plus, they have excellent defensive coordinator Brian Flores and promising head coach Kevin O’Connell. Remember that O’Connell was the coach who led the 13–4 record — a year after being the offensive coordinator for the LA Rams the season they won the Super Bowl.
But the elephant in the room is the fact that many of those key players are up in the air for returning. Jefferson may decide to move on from the Vikings if he doesn’t get higher pay — understandable. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the league. Although keeping Jefferson really may boil down to structure and not money for the Vikings.
Cousins, meanwhile, is the most noticeable loss. After his season-ending achilles injury, the Vikings’ quarterback problems became glaring. Minnesota needed Kirk Cousins to stop the bleeding on an unpredictable quarterback position while they find someone to replace him. However, the draft looks very promising.
Other things need to be cleaned up as well. The offensive line needs to improve, the running back situation needs to be fixed, and the Vikings’ overall play calling needs to get more creative and more competitive against an increasingly improving NFC North.
But again — a Super Bowl appearance? Never say never.
