How Trump’s Felony Conviction Could (Actually) Affect The Election
And how I feel about this whole thing
Here’s what I try to tell myself as we approach November: “Whatever happens, it’s what we deserve as a nation.” I mean that with every fiber of my body. It terrifies me to no end, but it’s true. We’re facing a mind control crisis in this country created by nonstop propaganda, 24-hour media access, and foreign efforts trying to covertly dismantle our democracy. Either we fight against those efforts, or we succumb to it. We’ll get what we deserve.
With that said, we really need to look at the Trump conviction. We can sit here and predict the otherwise, frankly, unpredictable presidential election. However, processing the Trump conviction truthfully will help us understand the election better. Here are some things to keep in mind going further into November, especially now with the historical 34 guilty felony counts against our former president.
But First Thing’s First
Please go to Rockthevote.org right now to register to vote — or check your registration here at Vote.org.
Next, form a voting plan. Check here to learn about voting absentee — more information will be found at the Secretary of State website of whichever state you live in. If you’re able to vote on Election Day in your area, find your polling place locator and make a plan to get there by choosing a time, a mode of transportation, and if necessary, an action plan for staying in line if you feel you could face any kind of voter suppression.
But now, onto the conviction:
It’s All About The Moderates
Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 by doing what the Hillary campaign failed to do: he won swing states. Trump secured Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, which he all subsequently lost in 2020. Notably, though, he lost by very narrow margins in those states.
Here’s the thing about the Trump conviction: it didn’t bring more people to his side. Rather, it emboldened the people who were already going to vote for him, no matter what. In fact, the guilty verdict prompted his followers to crash the Trump campaign site — something that comes as no surprise.
Don’t look at the Trump-or-die people. Look, rather, at the people on the fence who were leaning towards Trump. Post-conviction polling does show a noticeable dip in support for Trump following his conviction with a good 25% of Trump supporters stating that they “might reconsider” their vote. Meanwhile, 4% state that they “will not support” Trump at all. The proof will be in the voting booth in November, so don’t put too many of your hopes into those albeit-small numbers.
That said, don’t ignore them. The conviction is having an effect against Trump that has the potential to grow. To that end, there’s another thing to remember going forward.
The Trump Train Is Already Dying, Despite Steady Poll Numbers
There are people who voted for Trump in 2020, even 2016, who have since become more silent about their support. Some are unsupportive of him entirely because of what Trump failed to deliver. I see personal accounts from people on social media speaking about their neighbors taking off their Trump bumper stickers and MAGA hats by the numbers. Especially after January 6, Trump supporters don’t seem to be collectively as loud about their leader as they used to be.
I’ve also listened to podcast episodes of former Trump supporters who express exactly why they will no longer follow Trump, and how more people are following their footsteps. One such episode included Michael Cohen, who (whatever your opinion about him is) even testified against Trump in the Stormy Daniels trial. There are documentaries as well that showcase former MAGA Americans, such as The Game is Up: Disillusioned Trump Voters Tell Their Stories.
This is just a handful of anecdotal proof that Trump appears to be losing support. Granted, while it is only anecdotal, it is an important thing to remember when considering polling numbers that, keep in mind, have to keep adjusting to account for the Trump era.
Things are already slipping for Trump. Regarding the conviction effects in particular, we’ve just seen the beginning of what will likely be a further loss.
Remember Trump’s “Winner” Brand
What scares me are the people who now regained faith in Trump after this conviction because of what the trial actually represents to them. If they weren’t planning to go to the voting booths before, this conviction may make them reconsider because it is proof of the “other” winning. The American government and the “liberal” media— the “system,” if you will — is the whole center keeping the Trump ethos alive. Just as darkness cannot exist without the concept of light, Trump’s savior image cannot exist without an enemy. The Stormy Daniels trial, and the trials that will follow, are examples of Trump “losing” and needing his “supporter’s help.” Think January 6th.
Still, what happens to a savior figure experiencing loss after loss? Trump is going to be sentenced on September 18 and could still run for president even if he were sentenced to prison. And of course, with each loss, his supporters will do what they can to come to his aid. But if history within the Trump era serves, fewer and fewer people will be willing to help out.
Trump is very much about being a winner. He reminds his followers that. In the face of a loss, he tells his followers that things were “rigged” — he did that with the 2020 election, and he did it with this conviction. It’s his way of telling his followers that he didn’t actually lose. However, conviction after conviction, sentencing after sentencing, and failure after failure is going to be a blow to this brand and is bound to translate in some way over the coming months.
Closing Thoughts: How Much The Conviction Really Matters
I’m not alone in feeling scared about this presidential election, partly because I feel like there’s not much we can do to help a country that we collectively feel doesn’t represent us. Again, you can refer to the polls on this.
I also see news sites reporting people who will still vote for Trump in spite of this conviction. Yes, not despite. In spite. While I’m glad to see justice get served (which, let me be clear, I believe should apply to anyone on the political spectrum, not just Republicans), I know that this conviction fuels the fire of the whole “MAGA vs. them” movement.
To that, I offer hope. I write whenever I need to process things, and during the time spent writing this article, I’ve remembered a number of things:
- The media only shows a fraction of what the American people are. We as a country are a lot more moderate than we realize. Our commonalities exist in our overall collective desire to retain democracy and maintain our freedoms.
- The Trump conviction may not seem to affect things much on paper, but again, we are just seeing the beginning of things. Polls only reflect the answers of those who respond. For many Trump-leaning voters, however, this conviction calls for a soul-search that will take time to process…a process that I do believe for enough people will happen.
- Despite optimism, we can’t be complacent. We do have to vote with the country in mind. We cannot let our foot off the gas.
- Our country has checks and balances. This trial was an example of these checks and balances being implemented to some degree. Remember. This. Justice being served is justice being served, and it will set precedents that are yet to be seen in this country.
Things still need to happen between now and November. The outlook is still unnervingly unpredictable for a lot of Americans, which affects our hope for the future.
But I like to remember this Star Wars quote from Princess Leia:
“Hope is like the sun. If you only believe in it when you can see it, you’ll never make it through the night.”
Hope drives change. Hope brings people to the polls, to the streets, and to the legislative halls. Despair pins us down. If we are to create a future for all American people, it is our duty to hope.
We have to hope. We have to act. This Trump conviction reminds us of this.
