2025 Oscar Winners — My Predictions
Let’s see how much of them I got right.
It’s Oscar season.
For the time that I’ve been on Medium, writing more sparingly than I would like in the past, I never got into what I think the Academy Award predictions will be. As someone who loves movies (I do have a degree in Cinema), this is something that I’ve been aching to get into.
Plus, what better time than this year, with one of the most contentious nominee lists that I have seen in some time?
Below are the categories with the full nominee lists. Not included will be the categories for Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, and the Documentary categories. I still encourage you to check these films out, but I don’t have any strong opinions on them.
I will select both what the Academy may choose and what I want to win.
And off to the Oscars:
The Big Four
Actor in a Leading Role
- Adrien Brody — The Brutalist (Academy) (Me)
- Timothée Chalamet — A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo — Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes — Conclave
- Sebastian Stan — The Apprentice
Good choices here, but Brody won the Golden Globe and is likely going to win the Oscar. Frankly, with the Academy’s history of being a sucker for movies about World War II or the Holocaust, I can see them going for it here again. While I think that everyone here is deserving of a nomination, I wouldn’t be mad with Adrien Brody.
I’d also prefer Brody over Timothée Chalamet or, to a lesser degree, Sebastian Stan. I have nothing against them. It’s just a personal pet peeve of mine when the Academy goes for biopic leading actors. I’d prefer Adrien Brody to get an Oscar for an original role over anyone doing a great Bob Dylan or Donald Trump impersonation. Again, credit to Chalamet and Stan — they were good in their roles — but Brody seems like the winner here.
Actress in a Leading Role
- Cynthia Erivo — Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón — Emilia Pérez (Academy)
- Mikey Madison — Anora
- Demi Moore — The Substance
- Fernanda Torres — I’m Still Here (Me)
Emilia Pérez is…going to win something. It just is. Karla Sofía Gasćon also has the distinction of being the first transgender woman to be nominated for Actress in a Leading Role. That, coupled with her Golden Globe win, makes me lean towards her for the Academy pick.
If I were to choose, however, I’d prefer Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here. The movie is up for International Feature Film as well, but it’s not going to win. In a just world, Torres would at least win on behalf of I’m Still Here — certainly over Emilia Pérez. To her credit, Torres won a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama.
That considered, I would also love it if Demi Moore won for The Substance. Cynthia Erivo, as excellent as she was as Elphaba in Wicked, will likely not win here. Wicked is not a movie that I think the Academy will take seriously — its nominations are more about getting the public interested in the Oscars.
Directing
- Jacques Audiard — Emilia Pérez
- Sean Baker — Anora
- Brady Corbet — The Brutalist (Academy)
- Coralie Fargeat — The Substance (Me)
- James Mangold — A Complete Unknown
Going off the same logic as Adrien Brody for Best Lead Actor, I think the Academy will walk in the Golden Globes’ footsteps and select Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The other nominations here are also not terribly strong enough to overpower his win, with the exception of Coralie Fargeat for The Substance — my personal pick.
The Academy is traditionally averse to horror, and they’re only more recently warming up to female directors. After giving Greta Gerwig nothing last year for Barbie, I think it would be more-than-satisfying to give Fargeat some Oscar praise for a film with such a profound effect on the viewer. But there are some clear snubs here. No Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two? No Robert Eggers for Nosferatu? Moving on.
Best Picture
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez (Academy)
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance (Me)
- Wicked
Unless the Academy takes the many universal complaints about Emilia Pérez into account, the fact that the film has 13 nominations — all in major categories, no less — has to count for something. In my opinion, Emilia Pérez is the worst film on this list by far, but it is this year’s Academy darling. A note against Emilia Pérez winning here: if it doesn’t win at least twice out of its 13 nominations, including a win for any of the categories of Best Directing, Best Cinematography, Best Lead Actress, or Best Adapted Screenplay, there’s a case to be made against it winning Best Picture.
The only two movies on here that have a chance of overtaking Emilia Pérez are The Brutalist and The Substance. Frankly, the most interesting movie on here to me is The Substance, and I would absolutely love for a stomach-turning, female-centric Cronenberg-esque horror film to win Best Picture. It also helps that The Substance is nominated in some crucial categories leading to a Best Picture win — Best Leading Actress, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay (Best Makeup and Hairstyling doesn’t hurt it either).
Wicked and Dune: Part Two aren’t winning , as much as I loved them — they’re the public-attracting blockbuster nominees and hold the same weight as Top Gun: Maverick (2022) or Avatar: The Way of Water (2022). Nickel Boys is a pleasant addition, but not a likely candidate. I’m Still Here is nominated for Best International Feature and won’t win against Emilia Pérez in that category, let alone here. Meanwhile, every other candidate here is just…fine. They’re uncontroversial.
Other Acting
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Yura Borisov — Anora
- Kieran Culkin — A Real Pain
- Edward Norton — A Complete Unknown (Academy) (Me)
- Guy Pearce — The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong — The Apprentice
I have a hard time believing the Academy will completely ignore A Complete Unknown. Unless they actually give the leading award to Chalamet, I could certainly see them making up ground here by awarding an actor with better longstanding notoriety. Out of all these parts, I would actually agree with Norton as the choice, with the exception of the two Succession stars — Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong — as being good possibilities.
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Monica Barabo — A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande — Wicked
- Felicity Jones — The Brutalist (Me)
- Isabella Rossellini — Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez (Academy)
Saldaña’s character in Emilia Pérez is given enough standing to be considered a co-lead alongside Gascón. I could see the Academy recognizing that and giving her credit. However, of all the other nominations, I see the most likely second place going to my preferred pick of Felicity Jones. I also enjoyed Ariana Grande’s performance in Wicked, but I don’t see the Academy picking the pretty fairy Barbie witch.
Writing
Adapted Screenplay
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave (Academy) (Me)
- Emilia Pérez
- Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
I don’t think the Academy will go so far as to award Best Adapted Screenplay to Emilia Pérez, given that it’s a musical (that’s not well-written, at that). So, looking at the other picks, I see Conclave being the most likely to win. The Academy tends to gravitate towards screenplays that are more…for lack of a better way to put it, cerebral and mature. If the screenplay gives your mind something to chew on, the Academy is going to favor that. Dialogue-heavy scripts — or the illusion of being dialogue-heavy — tend to do well. Conclave is a political-religious thriller talking about the Pope’s successor. It seems favored, and it’s one I’d put my own money on too.
Original Screenplay
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Real Pain
- September 5 (Academy)
- The Substance (Me)
Yes. The Brutalist is on here. I know.
And yet, I feel like the Academy would gravitate more towards September 5. Based on the real-life hostage-massacre situation of Israeli athletes during the 1972 Munich Olympics, September 5 has the same advantage as Conclave: it’s dialogue-heavy and mature. It’s a movie almost entirely based around the weight of its conversational scenes. Plus, it’s centered around a political issue still holding relevance today.
Especially given that it’s the one Original Screenplay nomination not up for any other category, I see September 5 practically being a shoe-in for this category. A Real Pain could be good competition against it, but I think the stronger emotional weight of September 5 puts it more in favor.
But my God, would I love for The Substance to win here.
Miscellaneous Feature Film Categories
International Feature Film
- I’m Still Here (Brazil) (Me)
- The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
- Emilia Pérez (France) (Academy)
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Flow (Latvia)
This is the first year that two International Feature nominees are also Best Picture nominees. No longer is the Best Picture-nominated film in this category guaranteed the International Feature Oscar.
With that said, only one of the two has thirteen nominations. I would really, really rather prefer the Oscar to go to I’m Still Here, but I’m a realist. Emilia Pérez is a shoe-in here. Just give them the award already. If Emilia Pérez is denied in every other award, it won’t be denied here.
Animated Feature Film
- Flow (Me)
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot (Academy)
The Animated Feature category is notoriously overlooked by the Academy. It’s the “children’s” category. I don’t like how it’s not given as much love and respect as I think it should, but the past few Oscars have gone to some respectable choices. Last year was Studio Ghibli’s The Boy and the Heron (although Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse would have been another excellent choice). The year prior was Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
This year will probably go to The Wild Robot. Even though Pixar gets their almost-obligatory nomination here with Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot will likely get points over it for having a touch more “wonder” to its animation and storyline.
That said, the Blender-made Flow won the Golden Globe. I would love for that to win, especially if it won’t win Best International Feature.
Technical Categories
Cinematography
- The Brutalist
- Dune: Part Two (Academy) (Me)
- Emilia Pérez
- Maria
- Nosferatu
If you were to tell past me that two Timothée Chalamet films would get Oscar nominations in 2025, I would be surprised to learn that the one with the most noms isn’t Dune: Part Two. I’m blaming recency bias here — A Complete Unknown came out during Christmas.
Nonetheless, the Academy tends to prioritize “epics” in this category. Dune: Part Two is the most epic of them all, but its jaw-dropping landscapes, use of lighting, and grand framing just shoot this movie through the roof for me. I appreciated the gothic, symmetrical cinematography in Nosferatu, but I would be genuinely disappointed if Dune: Part Two came out of this category empty-handed.
Visual Effects
- Alien: Romulus
- Better Man
- Dune: Part Two (Academy) (Me)
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Wicked
It’s funny how there are two motion-capture monkey movies on here (Better Man and Kingdom), but neither are better than Dune: Part Two. By creating such a gorgeous sci-fi world with state-of-the-art graphics, Dune: Part Two is what I’m betting this award goes to.
As impactful as Dune: Part Two was to cinema for me, I would hope that its March 2024 release didn’t affect its impact on the Academy’s memory too much. Dune 2 is winning this category.
Film Editing
- Anora
- The Brutalist (Academy) (Me)
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
This is hard, because I never really loved the Academy’s choices for Editing awards. Editing is more than just a bunch of creative quick cuts in a film. It’s also different than having weird camera angles. Editing elevates the story. Out of all the hours (or feet) of footage, what does the editing team select and arrange? How do these choices tell the story?
With that said, these are the nominations. I think that the Academy will select The Brutalist on the grounds of it being more well-regarded on this list, and for it perhaps being more visually interesting in a way. Do I want it to win? I wouldn’t be mad about it. And looking into the AI controversy surrounding it, I’m seeing nothing major at all: tweaking Adrien Brody’s Hungarian accent? That’s not criminal. Building rendering? That would be annoying, but I’m not seeing anything that actually substantiates this.
Sound
- A Complete Unknown
- Dune: Part Two (Academy) (Me)
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Of all of these films, Dune: Part Two is the most well-made. I wouldn’t be upset with Wicked winning sound here, if we’re going to talk about how the mixing of so many different elements in this film works: the live singing with the rest of the music, the magical sounds of vibrations and breezes, the wind sounds of flying and falling, etc. However, it’s not enough in my book to overtake Dune: Part Two.
Given that the Academy is going to think of Wicked as more of a design movie than a technical one anyway (unless the musical aspect plays a part in voting here), the award is likely going to Dune 2 over Wicked.
Art and Design
Production Design
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Wicked (Academy) (Me)
As much of a defender as I’ve been of Dune: Part Two, we still have to open our eyes to the fact that it’s a giant desert movie with occasional Geidi Prime glimpses. Gorgeous as it is, it’s not beating Wicked. Nor is Nosferatu, as incredible as the Transylvanian and Wisborg set designs are.
Every piece of Wicked’s production design is intricate and engrossing. The color, the detail, the world of Oz…it’s incredible. The award is going to Wicked.
Costume Design
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Nosferatu
- Wicked (Academy) (Me)
Despite agreeing with what the Academy could choose, this is a close race between Wicked and Nosferatu. I think the costumes are slightly more impressive in Nosferatu in terms of fullness and historical detail, but it’s hard to beat out a musical with fashion being a key aspect to the characters: Galinda is her pink wardrobe. The witches’ hat and the iconic flying cape complete Elphaba. The detail, the color, the use of costumes to build worlds like Shiz University and the Emerald City…I’m leaning towards Wicked. The Academy will likely do the same.
Makeup & Hairstyling
- A Different Man
- Emilia Pérez
- Nosferatu
- The Substance (Academy) (Me)
- Wicked
You can’t put a full-on body horror film on here and not give it the Oscar. Each nomination here deserves its place — except I think you could easily replace Emilia Pérez with Dune: Part Two.
Bill Skarsgård’s rotting flesh in Nosferatu, Cynthia Erivo’s full-on green skin in Wicked, Sebastian Stan’s changing face (collaborating with Adam Pearson) in A Different Man…all good nominations. But The Substance was born to win an award in this category.
Music
Original Song
- “El Mal” — Emilia Pérez (Academy)
- “The Journey” — Six Triple Eight (Me)
- “Like a Bird” — Sing Sing
- “Mi Camino” — Emilia Pérez
- “Never Too Late” — Elton John: Never Too Late
This category is going to an Emilia Pérez song, and it’s going to “El Mal.” I’m calling it. I’m not happy about it, but then again, I’m not loving any of the selections for Best Original Song this year. They’re all just…fine.
Meanwhile, if there was a song here that most exemplifies the theme and tone of the movie they’re made for, I’m between “The Journey” and “Like a Bird.” I like the R&B feeling of “Like a Bird,” but “The Journey” grows and fills the space more. If it means giving Diane Warren her Oscar already, let’s give it to the H.E.R.-performed song.
Original Score
- The Brutalist (Me)
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked (Academy)
- The Wild Robot
We’re going to ignore the fact that Wicked is not an original score for a moment and believe that the Academy will award it an Oscar. Personally, I like The Brutalist a bit more, although I know there are a number of fans of The Wild Robot’s soundtrack. I don’t absolutely hate Conclave’s soundtrack, but I’m finding Volker Bertelmann’s industrial-sounding aspects in the score weirdly out-of-place.
The nominees felt kind of lackluster this year for Best Original Score. Maybe I’m feeling this way because of a Dune 2 snub here. Nonetheless, Wicked is winning, if it’s not Emilia Pérez.
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